Guillermo Alves
Economista Principal, Dirección de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas, CAF -banco de desarrollo de América Latina-
COVID-19 has put large cities in the spotlight. The first stage of the spread of virus took place in Wuhan, a city of 11 million inhabitants, and today New York City records the highest number of contagions and one of the highest fatality rates. In Latin America, the main focus of contagion have also concentrated in the cities—where 80% of the population lives.
Approximately seven out of ten trips in Latin American cities are made in public transport. In the current context, subways, buses and trains, as mass systems with passengers in close proximity, are among the main sources of contagion and therefore of grave concern for government epidemiological strategies. To date, three major measures have been implemented to prevent the spread of the virus in public transport in cities. The first is based on limiting the number of passengers per vehicle, which reduces proximity and contact, and therefore, chances of contagion. In a context with fewer passengers, this measure can be handled relatively well, but when cities return to a relatively “new normal,” the number of units in circulation will need to be increased at certain times and in certain routes. This increase in transport capacity must be carefully managed in order to meet changes in demand, but we also need to be conservative, as errors in calculation that lead to excessive passenger concentrations may result in higher costs in terms of contagion.
Second, there are measures that reduce the number of contacts between people and between people and common surfaces. For example, a large number of U.S. cities have suspended fares and required passengers to board buses through the back door. This measure minimizes interaction between the driver and passengers, either to collect fare or any other indication. In systems with dual cash and electronic fare payments, cash payments could be suspended.
Third, contagion can be curbed without restricting the number of passengers and contacts through measures such as mandatory use of facemasks, which has been implemented in cities such as Santiago de Chile and Buenos Aires, constant disinfection of vehicles, stations and stops, and by supplying hand sanitizers for passengers and transport staff.
In addition to these measures on the epidemiological front, drastic reductions resulting from social distancing leave the transport sector in the red, introducing economic and financial concerns in the management of transport systems. In cities such as Bogotá, Buenos Aires or Montevideo, the number of passengers dropped by more than 80%. In this context, one possible solution is to reduce trip frequencies in an attempt to save on variable costs such as fuel and wear and tear. While this may reduce the deficit, it will be far from eliminating it, due to fixed costs such as vehicle amortization payments and wages.
Reducing frequencies proportionally to demand is also problematic, as the number of passengers per unit increases as peak times, and thus also the chances of contagion. In addition, the transfer of essential personnel such as healthcare, transport and food supply and security staff should be ensured. Thus, public transport must continue to operate as frequently as required based on the needs of each city, and this demands financial assistance from governments. In contexts where local government finances are also impaired, national governments will need to include public transport aid as part of their tax relief package.
These measures should be adjusted to the different stages of social distancing in cities and countries. Both the nature of the measures and their dynamic nature mean that the coordination of efforts between local and national governments must be carefully managed. Large groups of the active population returning to work can be catastrophic in terms of contagion if public transport local supply is not expanded, and this will generally not be possible without financial assistance from national governments. Coordination efforts also include the role of national governments in ensuring local availability of supplies such as facemasks or hand sanitizers, as well as the role of local governments in providing information on public transport operation and occupancy levels to prevent mass contagion.
