Pablo Cisneros
Ejecutivo Principal de Energía de CAF
The PRONOS project, funded by CAF with the purpose of supporting Uruguay’s Electricity Market Administrator (ADME), aims to include the wind and solar resources outlook in the optimal operating tools for Uruguay’s National Interconnected System (SIN), which until now had only considered fuel availability for thermal power plants, and water resources for hydro power plants.
The project improved the short-term forecasting capacity for wind, solar and hydro production, and enhanced demand forecasting, which had been a constant need for over a decade, since Uruguay incorporated wind and solar as intermittent sources into its energy matrix.
PRONOS prompted new research lines and created a real-time model that allows estimation of the energy price for the next 72 hours, thus positively influencing demand in order to optimize the use of available energy.
This modern tool allows users to view wind and solar generation forecasts for the next 7 days from any date, and features a selector to choose any given power station and display its specific forecast. The information is obtained in quasi-real time (updated as real-time information is received from sensors at the stations, with delays of up to 1 hour between the values).
The inclusion of forecasts through this tool in future operational programming strategies has helped generate exports to Brazil and to improve them to Argentina, yielding profits in the neighborhood of USD 20 million per year, among other benefits.
Results from the usage of this system have been very positive, both economically—based on revenue increases—and also from a technical standpoint. From the technical perspective the project has made significant strides, enhancing development in the operation and management of technical and commercial areas. This has helped consolidate all knowledge produced by the tools in use today, for better programming and operation of SIN.
In conclusion, the PRONOS Project has made vital contributions in different areas: within the SIN, where significant economic gains have been secured due to improved efficiency, and from a technical point of view, in the development of technologies and tools to help improve services across all areas. This is therefore a CAF contribution not only to the efficiency of Uruguay’s power system but also to the energy future of the region.
