Analyzing El Niño’s impact on the region

The El Niño climate phenomenon and its global impact is to be the central theme of a forum organized by the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) and the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction of the Columbia University Earth Institute at the National Press Club in Washington DC on the 30th of this month.

At the event, the CAF infrastructure vice president, Antonio Juan Sosa, is to present a view of the effects of El Niño in the Andean countries, and the director of the Earth Institute, Jeffrey Sachs, will give his perspective on global vulnerability to the effect of the climate phenomena associated with the El Niño.

Experts from the Institute will present the latest estimates of the impact that this phenomenon could have in different regions of the world. According to experts on the phenomenon, the effects this year are expected to be weaker than in 1997-98 although they will continue to be felt during the next six to nine months.

The effects of the phenomenon are seen in humidity, rains and drought, as well as changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, affecting agriculture, fisheries, industry, mining, trade, tourism, among other productive activities.

During the 1997-1998 period, the negative impact in the Andean region caused economic losses estimated at US$7.50 billion, affecting most seriously Peru and Ecuador which suffered damage valued at over US$6.00 billion.

Responding to a mandate of the XI Andean Presidential Council, the CAF has set up the Disaster Prevention Program (Preandino) to strengthen and develop regulations and institutions for risk prevention in each country and execute priority regional projects.

In this context, the CAF commissioned a study on the economic and social impact of El Niño in 1997 and 1998. The results identified a set of weaknesses in preventing this type of situation, including lack of permanent prevention policies even though damaging natural phenomena are regular occurrences; lack of institutions to promote risk prevention in development planning at national, sectoral and territorial levels; and the need to improve the technological capacity of centers for research on natural phenomena.