CAF Presents Climate Change Vulnerability Index at COP

The studies are part of the LAIF Initiative on Cities and Climate Change, funded by the European Union and implemented by CAF and the French Development Agency (AFD), and aim to identify relevant measures of adaptation to climate change, based on the vulnerability and climate risk assessment of these cities, considering their environmental, economic and social dimensions. Based on the studies, already available on CAF’s website, the aim is to strengthen the resilience of cities to extreme weather events derived from climate change, by enabling adequate planning of cities that curbs their vulnerability and that of their residents.  

Main findings of the index in the 9 cities

The vulnerability index presented in Ecuador shows that GHG emissions in Portoviejo have been a consequence of the significant urban growth of the city and the demand for greater resources such as water, energy or fuels. The vulnerability index of Santa Cruz de Galápagos, on the other hand, shows that the city must achieve a balanced and multidimensional territorial management model due to its “social and ecosystem” fragility. The study onLoja detected the sectors with the highest risk of climate impacts, especially the northwestern and southern sectors, and identified the 14 main vulnerability challenges of the city.

The vulnerability index of La Paz and Tarija, in Bolivia, revealed floods and water scarcity as the main climate threats. The study forecasts in La Paz a decrease in the availability of water resources per inhabitant in the basins that supply the city, and an increase in the risk of landslides, while in Tarija, supply problems are expected due to water scarcity in the La Victoria, Erquiz and Tolomosa basins.

In Peru, the vulnerability index forTrujillo and Piura reviews the vulnerability of the different sectors of the cities, as well as their watersheds. The Trujillo study shows the danger of landslides in the San Ildefonso ravine and coastal erosion. In Piura, on the other hand, the urban footprint has increased six times in the last 3 decades, and there is present danger of overflow of the Piura River. In both cases, there is an urgent need to develop a Climate Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP).

In Fortaleza, Brazil, the index revealed that the main risks by 2040 will be temperature increase, prolonged droughts, extreme rainfall and sea level rise. The risk hotspots in the city were studied so that authorities can develop specific adaptation measures. In Recife, in addition to identifying the neighborhoods with the highest risk of drought, floods or heat waves, the study identified the need to implement a Coastal Risk Reduction Plan, waste monitoring, planning for the expansion of afforestation and the construction of artificial reefs, among others.

Methodology for preparing the vulnerability index

The development of vulnerability assessments started with a process of threat identification, based on information collected from cities and a participatory process with key stakeholders, both from the public and private sectors, followed by a climate analysis based on the historical meteorological information of the city and the use of climatological models to predict future climate in scenarios with certain greenhouse gas emissions.

The next step is the analysis of the behavior of each climate change vulnerability component (exposure, sensitivity and adaptability) for present and future scenarios in each city, in order to complete an assessment of present and future vulnerability shown by the studies.

LAIF Initiative on Cities and Climate Change

The LAIF Initiative on Cities and Climate Change, financed by the European Union, and implemented by CAF and AFD, aims to implement climate change prevention, mitigation and adaptation projects in cities in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, raise awareness and foster knowledge in the region on climate issues, as well as build capacities for the most effective implementation of public policies