How to reduce the effects of El Niño in the Latin American electric sector
To address a comprehensive risk management strategy in the electric sector, it is necessary to know the threats and vulnerabilities.
The phenomenon of El Niño consists of the interaction of the superficial waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean with the atmosphere, which affects the water balances at the surface, creating extreme situations. For the countries of Latin America, the reduction of risk disasters resulting from natural threats such as El Niño and its subsequent phenomenon, La Niña, continues to be a challenge.
To address a comprehensive risk management strategy in the electric sector, it is necesary to know the threat as well as the vulnerability.
The threat is one of the components of risk. It refers to the natural event such as a river flood or severe drought, among others. It is necessary to have prior knowledge of its intensity, how fast the event will materialize, and its spatial extension, in order to characterize what may happen.
Vulnerability refers to the degree of exposure to damages that an agent or system may suffer as a result of a specific threat. The fragility of the infrastructure, the people, and the environment, depends on the probability of occurrence of the phenomena, and the conditions of vulnerability of institutional, physical, social, ecologic, and cultural aspects. For the risk management planner it is necessary to know the different types of vulnerabilities that may result from threats generated by the phenomenon of El Niño, to prepare for its appearance.
Comprehensive risk management must be applied in the electric sector in three stages:
- Detection: during
this stage, preventive actions should be taken before the
materialization of the threat, and the electric energy sector must
identify the critical areas, and verify the levels of physical
exposure of the generation, transmission, and distribution
infrastructure, identifying the potential impacts on the
communities. For this, decision makers must follow up certain
climate indicators related to the energy infrastructure and the
populations that are interconnected to the network, as well as
establish inter-institutional communication connections and
mechanisms with the authorities that will potentially be involved
when facing the crisis.
- Maximum peak: during this
stage, efforts must concentrate on mitigating the effects of the
crisis. The authorities of the countries affected by the ENSO
phenomenon must implement the plans and strategies developed during
the preventive stage. This must go hand in hand with a
sensitization and awareness plan for the public in general, as well
as gathering data regarding the events. Currently, Colombia, Peru,
and Ecuador and coordinating joint actions to face this stage of El
Niño.
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