How will artificial intelligence affect public employment in Latin America?

Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) have introduced new challenges for governments, including developing a workforce with the right profiles and skills to adapt to the transformation that today’s jobs are likely to have.  

In the United States, between 20% and 45% of public officials’ time is devoted to tasks that could be automated, and between 45% and 60% relates to tasks that could be complemented by technology. Meanwhile, in Latin America, 30% of the public administration workforce works in occupations with a high risk of technological substitution.  

To meet this challenge, governments must prioritize efforts to develop soft and hard skills for public-sector workers. Chinn et al. (2020), for example, estimate that in the next three years European Union governments will be challenged to train nearly 9 million workers in digital skills, digital citizenship skills and traditional soft skills.

In response to the possible impact that the adoption of AI may have on public employment in Latin America, the State Vice Presidency of Knowledge, Digital Innovation Directorate, of CAF – development bank of Latin America –, has commissioned a review study of this potential impact to support the countries in the region in understanding, analysis and estimation in order to provide better training tools.  This case will be published shortly.

Findings

The review found that with the exception of certain countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, most of the world's governments have not yet transitioned from defining general policies and objectives in this area to implementing effective strategies, and at sufficient scale, that would significantly transform the nature of public employment in terms of the challenges that the new environment presents.

However, various private organizations around the world have implemented workforce preparation strategies that can serve as references for governments. These strategies include:

• the implementation of comprehensive approaches to organizational transformation based on data and AI, which envisage the development of skills in the workforce,
• the development of skills diagnostics and permanent and personalized training programs, supported by digital platforms, data and AI,
• the creation of inter-functional roles and teams that plan and manage the balance between human work and autonomous work,
• the implementation of strategies in terms for job well-being, employee empowerment and development of a flexible and open organizational culture, and finally
• the implementation of key performance indicators (KPIs) to manage workforce readiness.

The cases of Chile, Colombia and Uruguay

As a part of the study, a practical methodology was developed to determine the degree of readiness of Latin American countries for the adoption of AI with regard to public employment. It consists of three main dimensions:

Policy Environment,

Structure and Organization,

Talent, Skills and Culture.

A set of associated factors and indicators are also included in analyzing the progress and critical aspects faced by countries in this area.

The study looked at cases from three countries: Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. It was found that the number of public jobs at risk for technological substitution in the coming years is 165,000 in Chile, 274,000 in Colombia, and 88,000 in Uruguay. However, it is estimated that the net impact on public employment may be less due to the possibility of relocating workers to occupations that are not to be replaced by AI, as well as the possible creation of new public jobs that the adoption of AI in governments will bring.

On the other hand, the study found that the three countries analyzed have an intermediate level of preparedness for the adoption of AI in public employment. It was evidenced that these countries present significant advances in the development of policy environments favorable to the adoption of AI, and that the greatest challenges to advance in this preparedness are: (i) estimation of AI impact on public employment, (ii) review of state structures and roles, (iii) diagnosis and development of AI/4IR skills for public servants, and (iv) the strategies of state organizational cultural change.

Recommendations for Latin America

The governments of LAC countries must make progress in implementing public policies and strategic initiatives to prepare public employment for AI adoption. It is specifically recommended that countries:

Adopt or consolidate national AI strategies, AI ethics strategies and government digital transformation policies, incorporating guidelines for the preparation of public employment with specific objectives and goals.

Define governance models and leadership roles in government to manage public employment readiness for AI and 4IR.

Develop official estimates on the expected impact of AI adoption on public employment, in terms of tasks to be replaced or augmented, worker relocation needs and potential for new job creation.

Develop diagnostics for AI/4IR hard/soft skills for public servants.

Implement AI/4IR hard/soft skill development strategies for public service, with customization components based on profiles. These strategies are classified as: (i) retraining (reskilling) of employees whose tasks may be replaced, (ii) updating of skills (upskilling) for all employees through personalized content, and (iii) recruitment of new workers, AI specialists and employees in general, with the required hard and soft skills.

Set out and implement cultural change and mindset development guidelines and strategies for AI and 4IR in the public sector, in areas such as adaptation to change, interdisciplinary thinking, continuous learning and teamwork.

This study was carried out within the regional initiative framework of the State Digital Innovation Directorate of the Vice Presidency of Knowledge, CAF – development bank of Latin America –, which promotes the strategic use of data and artificial intelligence by the public sector in Latin American countries, in order to create social and economic value.

On September 15, the ExperiencIA, data and artificial intelligence in the public sector forum will be held , where this and other examples will be discussed in depth, alongside executives responsible for related areas.